If, like me, you are a fan of a NBA team that is in the lottery for the NBA Draft this June, you’re going to want your team to get one of the top 2 picks. Reason being, after the first two players’ (Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams…pretty much a lock) the impact players are hard to come by. The guy who could have made the impact players “duo” a “trio” in this year’s draft announced April 18th that he would be returning to school.
Harrison Barnes took more time in his announcement to the basketball world than his teammates Tyler Zeller and John Henson did. All 3 had high first round draft outlooks and now all 3 will be returning to Chapel Hill . With Barnes being predicted to be taken in the top 3, he by far was the most likely to jump to the NBA. In the end though, the draw of a possible championship run combined with a run at Player of the Year at UNC was greater than the draw of instant millions as a top 3 pick. UNC now will be voted, by most, as the preseason #1 and favorite to win it all and Barnes voted as a Preseason Player of the Year candidate for the ACC and NCAA.
In a previous post on STOB, we predicted (way too early) the NCAA preseason top 10; this announcement will not change my predictions at all:
1. UNC
2. Ohio State
3. Duke
4. Texas
5. Kentucky
6. Syracuse
7. Memphis
8. Louisville
9. Michigan
10. Cincinnati
Predicted Final Four – Duke, Louisville , UNC and Michigan
Predicted Champion – UNC
Possible Issues even with Barnes -
With Barnes back it would be easy to say that UNC will just coast through and dominate their way to a championship. Yet, even with all the scoring that UNC will have inside, their outside shooting will still be a bit suspect. The addition of the sniper freshman PJ Hairston (#4 ranked SG) will help, but UNC will need consistent three point shooting from last year’s inconsistent shooting Barnes (34%), Dexter Strickland (25%), Leslie McDonald (38%), Kendall Marshall (37%) and Reggie Bullock (29%).
Defense is an area that UNC always, it seems, only focuses on from time to time. This lack of engagement on the defensive side of the ball could definitely throw a detour on the road to the championship for UNC. The ability to play good defense is there with the talent on the floor, but defense isn’t about skill, it’s about “want to”. Roy Williams will need to instill a commitment to defense if UNC is to reach its championship potential.
Barnes started slow last year, but consistently got better and better throughout the season. If he can continue this growth, he very well could be the best player in college basketball next year on the best team. Sounds like a pretty good incentive to stay in school and put off millions for just one more year, I guess Barnes agrees.
As a Duke Fan –
How does a Duke fan not take this as bad news? Kyrie Irving, who also was a lock as a top 3 pick like Barnes did jump to the NBA. UNC will return its entire starting five, while Duke’s starting five will look very different with (when everyone was healthy) 3 of the 5 headed to the Association. Poor little Duke has no chance next year. How could it get any worse? Where will you find a positive light that you can take and shine on this decision by Harrison Barnes?
Let’s take a little look at a couple teams minus team names whose situations, match up very well with Duke and UNC this spring.
Team A –
Team will be coming off of a National Championship and returning 2 leading scorers and best players after they decide not to go to the welcoming NBA. In the upcoming season Team A will be bringing in a top recruiting class to add to an already impressive list of returning players. Team A is chosen as the preseason #1 after the announcement of its final player, a 6’8 SF, considering the NBA Draft that he is coming back.
Team B –
Coming off a disappointing season. A season that at most schools, would be considered good or acceptable, is not near the expectations that this school has. Arch rival, Team A, is coming off a better season. Team A is now announcing the return of their best players, while also bringing in more great recruits. Team B has some hope though; they are adding the #1 recruit in the country. A player everyone says could go to the Association from High School if rules allowed such a move. Other great recruits are also coming with the #1 recruit, and offers hope.
End result?
You are all smart…you have by now figured out that Team A is Duke last year at this time and Team B was UNC last spring. Duke (Team A) had a nice season with the preseason hype, but finished their year behind UNC (Team B) in the ACC regular season standings and didn’t last as long in the NCAA Tournament (Duke – Sweet 16, UNC – Elite 8).
I think if you compare the two it’s amazingly similar. Duke will be young and inexperienced next year. They will be led by a much hyped Austin Rivers, just like Barnes led UNC last year. Also like UNC last year, I think it will take some time for Duke to find its roles and how to work together to be the best they can be this year. I think like Duke last year, UNC will come out firing from the beginning. Seeing as the core of the team is returning that has already learned how to play together is returning, and only the freshman will need to figure out their roles. I’d say that this time last year, UNC was actually in a worse situation than Duke is now, when looking strictly at the rivalry.
Will it end up just like last year? Will UNC max out its potential and not continue to improve all year and end up behind a Duke team that starts slow and improves all year in 2011-2012? These are question for which the answer can only be found in time. Yet, if you are a Duke fan, this is the hope that currently I can find in a situation that in all ways is pointing towards “The Rival” having the upper hand in the upcoming season.
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