Final Four Coaching Rankings and Final Four Predictions

So the college basketball season is down to the Final Four.  Four teams that have battled through two weekends of tournament ball to make it to Houston.  If there is one thing that you get when you get to the Final Four is four very good coaches.  A team does not make it to the Final Four without a good coach.  This year is no different even though a couple of the coaches rub me the wrong way.  Let’s rank the coaches left and then predict what who will be left standing after these four square off this weekend.

1. Brad Stevens – Butler

At the start of last year I wonder how many people out of 100 could answer the question: Who is Butler Men’s Basketball head coach?  I think the number would be quite low.  Now though it would be very high, I guess back to back trips to the Final Four will do that.  Watch Stevens this weekend; look at his demeanor at the very start of the game.  Then look at him when the game is tight, late in the game.  What you will see is the exact same, calm and cool demeanor.  In an interview with Gordon Hayward of the Utah Jazz on ESPN radio this morning, Gordon explained that the run he was a part of last year with Stevens was aided in many ways by Stevens’ calm demeanor.  It is that demeanor, great plays coming out of timeouts, great defensive strategy, great job instilling that defensive intensity and calm demeanor in his team that makes Stevens my top remaining coach.

2. Jim Calhoun – UConn

Now if I was picking a guy to coach my team in the next 10 years or even just next season, Calhoun would be at the bottom of my list.  But I am not, I am picking the coaches based on this weekend and who I think is the best this weekend.  Calhoun it could easily be argued should be at the top of this list.  What I’ve seen from Stevens though in the past two years makes that impossible for me to do.  Calhoun has won a championship and been to the Final Four 4 times.  Calhoun is much feistier than Stevens, but that also works great for his team.  You have to admire what Calhoun has been able to do with this young team this year.  They finished 9^th in the Big East, but found themselves as a team in the Big East tournament and ended up winning it.  That shot them up to a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they have continued their late season success.  Jim Calhoun deserves a lot of the credit for getting this team ready for tournament time and for knowing the best play he can call this year is “Get the ball to Kemba.”

3. Shaka Smart - VCU

I understand that Smart’s track record isn’t all that sparkling outside of the past two weekends.  VCU had a very underwhelming regular season and if you think this team is truly as good as it’s been in the tournament, then Smart has coached an underachieving team up to until the start of the tournament.  The only reason Smart isn’t in last place for THIS weekend is because he has found the magic touch in the past two weekends and that magic will continue the rest of this season.  Even though VCU may not end up being the last team standing, Smart is on fire and has been making all the right moves in the tourney.

4. John Calipari – Kentucky

What a surprise Calipari is coming in to the Final Four with the NCAA and NBA looking into possible violations around his program!  This guy is such a sleazy coach.  UMass and Memphis can tell you all about what happens soon after he has success at your school.  You get crushed by the NCAA while he runs off claiming total ambivalence to the situations he left behind while taking big money elsewhere.  Calipari is a great recruiter (cheating the whole way probably) but has never impressed me with his in game coaching.  This year is different though, I have been very impressed with how well prepared the Wildcats have been for UNC and Ohio State in their past two games.  I have to give him credit for that, even Jay Z was proud of his performance…oh…sorry sore subject.  Kentucky might be the best team left in the tournament but I can’t say the same about their coach.

Predictions that are also probably worse than my cat’s picks:

UConn over Kentucky

Butler over VCU

Butler over UConn

Just gut feeling that Stevens and the Bulldogs get it done this year.  Doesn’t matter what you did prior to playing Butler, you will not be able to do those same things against them.  Butler does the best of any team in the country that I’ve seen in making you play the game they want you to play.  They did it all the way through the tournament last year including the Duke championship game, and they’ve done the same thing all the way through this year’s tournament.  I see it continuing, with experience beating out VCU and suffocating defense of Nored slowing down Walker enough to seal the deal in the championship game.

Should be a great weekend and be sure to check out Sports Tears in Our Beers.

Freaky Final Four and Collaboration Announcement

Why the picture of the cat?  Well because...with Mrs. Duke we had our first annual family bracket challenge.  We said "Hey, how about having Garfield (our cat) have a bracket too?!?"  So I made picks as a cat would, picking the Wildcats for instance over the Bulldogs.  Huskies...mushed them right out of the tourney early.  His Final Four?  Pitt Panthers...pffff what a loser cat, knocked out by Bulldogs.  Louisville Cardinals cause he loves watching birds....you silly kibble brained kitty you're down two Final Four teams already.  Then he turned it around.  Arizona Wildcats, you should've seen him strutting around the house after they beat Duke.  Last but not least, Kentucky Wildcats, his pick to win it all.  Garfield has already locked up a win against both Mrs. Duke and I and in impressive fashion.  Kind of humbling.

It has been that kind of year this year in the NCAA Tournament.  Four teams that nobody expected at the beginning of the tournament have made it.  VCU has made it after everyone said they didn't even deserve to be in the tourney in the first place.  Butler is back in the Final Four after last years runner up finish.  Kentucky is back in the Final Four for the first time since 1998.  UConn has continued it's hot streak and is ready to continue to ride Kemba Walker's play to a title.

Not sure yet who I think will take it all next week, but I suppose I should follow Garfield's lead and go with Kentucky.  That'd be the smartest idea, but I can't give him the satisfaction.  So I will pick one of the other three later this week.

Announcement:

The collaboration project I mentioned at the end of my last post is almost complete.  I will be working with Sidefx182 on "Sports Tears in Our Beer's".  This will be a sports blog that approaches different issues and news, focused mainly on sports, the way that the two of us approach a discussion over a beer.  It should be great, two perspectives on the sport's news of the day. Something new we are looking to attempt as well is podcasting.  This will allow us to dive into topics without all the...type-y-ness.  Please check out Sidefx182's blog on Minnesota sports and the currently under construction Sports Tears in Our Beer's blog.

Kitty Likes to Scratch!

Usually I am upset when Duke loses, all four losses prior to this one this year I got frustrated, but last night was different.  It was unexpected in the way that Arizona played a perfect half of basketball.  It was unexpected that the veteran Duke team reacted to Arizona’s great play by curling up in to a ball instead of counter punching. 

The way that Arizona played in the second half could not have been stopped, Duke wasn’t going to beat Arizona when they were playing that way.  Because of that I was in a surprisingly good mood last night after the game.  I felt like “It’s just one of those days.”  If you are an average lip reader you could see Coach K say just that to his assistant coaches in the second half after a Nolan Smith missed free throw, “It’s just one of those days”.

In your daily life when you come up short on a goal, sometimes the reasons you came up short will stick with you and bug you.  I find that this only happens when you had something that you could’ve done or tried harder at to achieve said goal.  Yet, if there was nothing else you could do, or the goal was too big to achieve you can come to peace with the failure to accomplish the goal much easier.  This definitely, for me, translates to last night’s game.  What I saw from Arizona in the second half, to me, there wasn’t much Duke could’ve done to stop that freight train.

So Arizona moves on to the Elite 8 to face Kemba Walker and the UConn Huskies.  If they play like they did in the second half, they will not lose another game this year.  I doubt they play like that though, the stars aligned for one half of great basketball.  Derrick Williams will be a beast, and if he continues this type of play even without aligning stars they will be a tough out.

Congratulations to Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith for great college careers.  Both are rarities in this era of college basketball.  Two players who both at times in their career had chances to go pro early, and passed even after winning a championship.  Both players improved each and every year from their Freshman campaign’s.  It will be really weird to see Duke take the court next year without Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith suited up.  It will also be very tough to replace the leadership from these two guys, who up to this point in their career's were very quiet and followed other leaders on the team.  Good luck to both of them in their future pro career's.

In the coming weeks I will continue to give opinions on the NCAA Tournament and then following the Tournament I will begin the season review.  Player profiles from the year, incoming Freshman profiles, season review, early 2011-2012 preview and more.  Then following that, the Mr. Duke blog will go into off season mode.

Also working on a collaboration project that will soon be available for you all to view, news on that coming soon.

Sweet 16 Preview

Fan’s of teams that usually compete for the title (UNC, Duke, UConn, Michigan State, Ohio State, etc.) may find this weekend to be even more exciting than most people’s favorite, the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  The Sweet 16/Elite 8 weekend usually doesn’t give us the same upsets and certainly not the overwhelming quantity of basketball that the opening weekend provides.  What it does usually give you is more quality games and match ups in the 12 games that take place this weekend.   Also the reward of making it to the Final Four awaits those who survive this weekend, which nobody can argue is much more prestigious than just making the Sweet 16.  Let’s take a look at the Sweet 16 match ups, with my predictions in each game and take a little longer look at the Duke/Arizona match up.

San Diego State vs. UConn

Match up to Watch: Kemba Walker vs. DJ Gay

Control Walker and the Aztecs win it.  Don’t control Walker, still they Aztecs possibly win but their chances are much more slim.

Prediction: San Diego State

BYU vs. Florida

Match up to Watch: Jimmer vs. Florida Gators

Much like Kemba Walker of UConn, Jimmer is a one man team here and even more so than Kemba really.  Every Florida defender will have a role in stopping him tonight.

Prediction: Florida

Butler vs. Wisconsin

Match up to Watch: Ronald Nored vs. Jordan Taylor

Nored is one of the best defenders in the nation, if he can keep Taylor under control than Butler has another Elite 8 trip in its future.

Prediction: Butler

Ohio State vs. Kentucky

Match up to Watch: Jared Sullinger vs. Josh Harrelson

Sullinger is the key for OSU, with him working the Buckeyes do well, if he starts struggling I think OSU may lose its efficiency.  It will be a group task to slow down Sullinger, but with a lack of depth that Kentucky has foul trouble for Harrelson and Jones could really hurt the ‘Cats.

Prediction: Ohio State

Marquette vs. UNC

Match up to Watch: Jimmy Butler vs. Harrison Barnes

Both their teams leading scorers, whoever gets the edge in this match up could have their team come out victorious.  Barnes has much more offensive fire power around him though.

Prediction: UNC

VCU vs. Florida State

Match up to Watch: Jamie Skeen vs. Chris Singleton

Reason I put Singleton here is because after another week of rehab on his foot he maybe getting much closer to 100% and if he is, the advantage goes to FSU.  VCU has played well, but they haven’t seen this type of length, athleticism and defense.

Prediction: FSU

Kansas vs. Richmond

Match up to Watch: Morris Twins vs. Richmond Spiders

Kansas goes as the brothers go, luckily there are two, if one is off the other can pick up the slack.  If Richmond can slow them down the Jayhawks begin to run out of great offensive options.

Prediction: Richmond

And now the one we all want to see tonight…

Duke vs. Arizona

Match up to Watch: Derrick Williams vs. Kyle Singler

Still unknown who will be matched up with Williams but Singler is a good bet as he has the size to defend Williams inside and can keep up with the athletic Williams on the outside.

Prediction: Duke

Duke wins this one due to the guard play and the lack of other options for Arizona outside of Derrick Williams.  Duke has too many options to shut down with Arizona’s defense and Duke has enough players that they can throw at Williams to slow him down some.  Kyrie Irving has had a week of practice now to get re-acclimated to the team and Coach K has said he will receive “significant minutes” tonight.  I expect a close game, but Arizona needed their best game to beat Texas last weekend, and even with that they were a 5 second inbound call away from losing.  Duke pulls away (unless K goes into clock kill mode to early) in the end after a close, feeling each other out, first half.

Weekend Review

As expected it was yet again a very exciting opening couple rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  There were the usual upsets, the big boys pushing around the little guys, injured players coming back and contributing, buzzer beaters, and nail biters.  The overall talent pool in college basketball may not be as good as it has been in the past. With that, and even with the tinkering that the NCAA insists on doing, the NCAA Tournament still produces the best sports drama of the year.  After making a very impressive mold of my posterior in my couch from Thursday morning to Sunday night I have some things that jumped out at me in good and bad ways and of course the Duke story as they head to the Sweet 16 again.

Duke's Weekend in Charlotte:

Kyrie Irving came back against an over matched Hampton team on Friday afternoon.  Duke really just imposed its will from the opening tip and the game was over early.  The most intriguing part of the game was how would Kyrie Irving look after not playing since early December?  In the first half Kyrie looked a bit apprehensive on the foot and looked like a guy that hadn’t played in over 3 months.  In the second half though Kyrie found his groove and ended with a team high 14 points.  Michigan smoked a distracted Tennessee team earlier that day and that set up a throwback game to the early 90’s between Michigan and Duke.

I’ll admit going in I was very happy to see Michigan moving past Tennessee.  Due to Tennessee being a “giant killer” all year.  After the game though I was surprised at how impressive the young Wolverines played.  Duke controlled the game for all except the last 6-10 minutes.  Nolan Smith played up to his usual Player of the Year level, then came Michigan’s 1-3-1.  The zone shut down Smith’s penetration and the open threes that Duke did get at the end of possessions weren’t falling.  Slowly the double digit lead that Duke had built early in the half disintegrated.  Duke held on in the end and survived a buzzer beating possible game tying shot from Michigan after a Nolan Smith missed free throw. 

I think overall it was a successful weekend for Duke.  Getting Kyrie Irving back was the best surprise for Duke.  I thought and now think even more the key for Duke was to get past this weekend.  Now Kyrie can have a near full week of practice to get re-integrated into the offense and get his legs under him.  The Michigan game was closer than it should’ve been, and I put the blame for that on the guy who won his 900^th game Sunday.  Coach K didn’t have the team ready to handle the 1-3-1 defense, and although it may not be a go to defense by Michigan it has been played before.  Also Coach K went into “clock kill” mode too early with the small lead that Duke had and against a team that can shoot the 3 like Michigan .  For me K goes into “clock kill” mode too early very often and it is a pet peeve of mine, it does usually work but yesterday was an example of what can happen with this strategy.  Hopefully moving forward Coach K will wait for a bigger lead, or less time left in the game prior to calling off the dogs so that a repeat of this near disaster doesn’t happen again.

Most Impressive Team: Ohio State

Murdered both teams they played this weekend and looked unstoppable.  I have to counter that though with the fact that the first game was against a 16 seed, and in the second game George Mason lost a leader of their team to illness prior to the game.  George Mason had no chance even with their ill player, but I think the impressive blow out may not have been quite as impressive.  Still, the Buckeyes showed why they are the #1 overall seed and favorites to cut down the nets in the end.

Most Impressive Player:  Matt Howard, Butler

As usual Howard didn’t put up the best numbers, but also as usual the plays that Howard made won games for Butler.  A buzzer beater to beat Old Dominion, a smart “Vlade Divac” flop/exaggeration on the rebound foul against Pitt and then sinking the game winning free throw.  A serious case could be made for Arizona’s Derrick Williams, and I wouldn’t argue but I choose Howard for this weekend because his heroics beat a #1 seed.

Biggest Disappointment: Big East

I have told friends for a while that the Big East is the deepest conference in the country, but as far as elite teams it isn’t the best conference.  Again it lived up to my opinion this weekend, whether it was Louisville falling to Morehead State or Notre Dame getting embarrassed by Florida State (should’ve left that pick on my bracket…gotta go with your gut).  Then Pitt losing against Butler, then Butler making a bone headed play to give the game back to Pitt, only for Pitt to make a more boneheaded play to give it right back to Butler.  Up to this point it has been another disappointing tournament for the Big East.

What I am Rooting For (other than Duke):

Who will come out of the Southwest and Southeast regions and represent them in the Final Four?  Kansas and Florida would be the favorites, but as we re-learn every single March the favorites aren’t the best pick usually.  My rooting interests will be Florida State beating Kansas with its superior length and athleticism in the Southwest final.  In order for that to happen Florida State will need to just continue executing offensively like it did against Notre Dame and not fall behind in its next two games.  FSU is great when playing with a lead, horrible coming from behind.  My other rooting interest on the right side of the bracket will be Butler.  I was rooting for them hard when they beat Pitt Saturday night and why not just carry that on and hope for repeat of last year’s National Title game?

I’ll have a Sweet 16/Elite 8 preview later this week. 

The Bracket 2011

Ok right before the tournament kicks off, I'll give you all my bracket.  I've done well with predictions on the blog so far this year, but with how even everyone is in this years tourney I have my doubts about my picks. 

Enjoy the 2011 NCAA Tournament everyone.

A "chance" Kyrie Irving Returns Against Hampton

Kyrie Irving practiced "a little bit" on Tuesday, which led Coach K to make this statement, "There is a chance that he (Irving) would play."

Very exciting news for Duke fans, most exciting because Irving could now have a bit of a warm up game against Hampton.  I know that there is a chance that Hampton keeps up with Duke and pushes them, but more than likely Duke will have a big lead early.  This will allow K to play a bit with line ups again and find what will work best for Duke moving forward with Kyrie.  Kyrie may not be at full strength this weekend, he may not be full strength in the entire tournament.  Yet if Duke makes it through this weekend, and if Kyrie doesn't tweak anything, Kyrie will have another week prior to the Sweet 16 games to continue to get his confidence back in his toe and his conditioning back to where he'd like.

This will be a very interesting weekend, not only is the NCAA Tournament starting, which is exciting, but now we get to see if Irving can jump back into the rotation for Duke.  If Irving does make a seamless transition back into the lineup, whether off the bench or at some point in the starting lineup, Duke may take over as the odds on favorite to win it all. 

NCAA Tournament Preview

Here we are folks; the big one has finally arrived.  As a Duke fan this is all I have cared about all year for Duke, getting to the tournament relatively healthy (Kyrie c’mon back now ya hear!), playing well and obtaining a #1 seed.  Almost all of these goals were achieved by Duke, and as previously mentioned it is very possible with Kyrie Irving talking about coming back that Duke will have achieved all the goals completely.  Now let’s look at the NCAA Tournament.  We’ll go through each region, talk about 1 seeds, possible sleepers, teams with championship potential and players to watch.

East Region:

In my mind this is the toughest region of them all.  You have the number 1 overall seed in Ohio State.  UNC could’ve been a 1 seed had they beat Duke in the finals of the ACC Tournament.  Syracuse was ranked in the top 5 half of the year.  Villanova was a top 10 team earlier this year.  Kentucky, although young, has as much talent as any team in the country.  Outside of the top tier teams in the region, there is a lot of solid depth throughout.

The 1 Seed:

Ohio State has all it takes to win a title this year and is the odds on favorite in Vegas to do just that.  Post play with Sullinger, outside shooting with Diebler and Buford, veteran leadership in Lighty, and a great coach in Thad Matta.   The thing I think OSU lacks the most is point guard play, they do have Aaron Craft but the speedy freshman although talented isn’t tested.  I think the downfall that could trip up Ohio State is the point guard, but it won’t be easy to keep this 1 seed from the Final Four.

Sleeper:

Marquette is an 11 seed that I think can make it to the Elite 8.  The Golden Eagles are the type of team that makes this region so tough.  I see Marquette beating Xavier with their athleticism and Big East experience.  A meeting with Syracuse could be a tough matchup in the second round but there is one thing that Syracuse isn’t, and that is consistent.  In the Sweet 16 Marquette could run into either Washington or UNC, both would be tough but both are beatable.  I think Marquette’s run would end at the elite 8 but if you think there is no chance they make the Final Four, think again.  A few things fall their way they could get there.

Championship Potential:

I see three teams; Ohio State, North Carolina and Kentucky.  I don’t think Syracuse is consistent enough to make the run all the way to the title.

Player to Watch:

Isaiah Thomas from Washington I think could single handedly ruin a lot of people’s brackets.  Thomas has the talent to lead his Huskies over the Tar Heels in the second round of this tournament.  Once in the Sweet 16 there is a good chance for Washington to then make it to the Elite 8 and beyond.

Southwest Region:

This is in my mind the 2^nd weakest region, coming in a close second to the very weak Southeast.  I know Kansas is a very popular pick to make it all the way right now but I know what Kansas has done lately in the tournament and I don’t trust them.  I see a sweet 16 run for Kansas.  Notre Dame, even though they have played well I don’t think they are the strongest of the 2 seeds and the middle seeds of this region is very mediocre.

The 1 Seed:

Kansas is talented and led by the Morris twins.  Again much like with Ohio State they have all the right ingredients for a title but I think they lack consistent point guard play as well.  Taylor and Selby are very talented players, but both are very inconsistent.  Louisville’s swarming defense in a possible Sweet 16 matchup could be the Jayhawk’s downfall.

Sleeper:

Florida State…I know shocking I pick an ACC team.  FSU it looks like will have Chris Singleton back for the NCAA’s as he was available in the Virginia Tech game last Friday in the ACC Tournament but ended up not playing.  With the type of defense that FSU plays they can beat A&M and Notre Dame this weekend and make a run as deep as the Final Four in my mind.

Championship Potential:

Kansas…that’s all I got from this region.  I could make an argument for Notre Dame but won’t because I don’t think they can do it.

Player to Watch:

As mentioned before, Chris Singleton.  Will be a 1^st round draft pick this summer, but is coming off having a broken bone in his foot.  If he plays close to 100% FSU could go far led by Singleton.  If Singleton is still a bit hobbled, A&M could end FSU’s run round 1.

Southeast Region:

By far to me this is the toughest region to pick a team to get to the Final Four, because there isn’t much to pick from.  Pitt is a habitual underachiever, Florida is an overrated 2 seed, BYU isn’t the same team without Brandon Davies, Wisconsin was held to 33 points over the weekend in a loss to Penn State….33 points and finally Kansas State has underachieved all year.  Good luck with this region.

The 1 Seed:

The Pitt Panthers are a tough team that plays a solid defensive style of basketball.  If you just renamed them to the Patt Pinthers, so I didn’t connect them with their past, I might pick them to go to the Final Four.  Since you can’t do that I don’t see Pitt coming out of this region due to their utter failure in previous tournaments to match expectations. 

Sleeper:

Utah State, personally I don’t have them getting out of the first round against Kansas State.  If they do though, which is very possible since Kansas State tends to randomly not show up, they could make a serious run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. 

Championship Potential:

Pittsburgh, if they stay out of foul trouble with their bruising play, it’s possible.

Player to Watch:

Jacob Pullen is the player in this region whose team most benefits if he plays well and suffers if he does not.  He can win a game by himself, but if he is not on his game Kansas State will lose first round to Utah State.

West Region:

The top half of this region is very tough to pick.  You could make a Final Four argument for 3 of the teams in the top half; Duke, Texas and Arizona.  The bottom half is just the opposite, UConn is really the only team I see that has Final Four potential.

The 1 Seed:

Hey! We know these guys!  Duke is the 1 seed here and is (surprise I know) my pick to win it all.  If you don’t know much about Duke and are reading this blog for the first time, please read some of the past posts and you’ll know all you need.

Sleeper:

Penn State is my choice.  This is a true sleeper choice in that I am 50/50 on whether they could even get out of the first round.  If they do though, San Diego State is beatable in the second round and if UConn is beat in the first two rounds, the Nittany Lions then have a chance to make a quite unexpected run to the Elite 8.

Championship Potential:

Duke, Texas, Arizona and UConn, by picking 4 from this bracket you could say this should be my choice as the toughest region but after these 4 it falls off big time unlike in the East.

Player to Watch:

There are a ton of players you could choose in this star studded region.  So I’ll choose someone you maybe haven’t seen before, Keith Benson.  Keith Benson is the center for Oakland and has NBA scouts slobbering.  Oakland has played a brutal schedule and will not be intimidated by Texas.  If they match up with Arizona in the second round, it will be the rare marquee big man matchup in the guard dominated NCAA’s, with Keith Benson and Derrick Williams.

ACC Tournament Review and Kyrie Irving Update

It is Monday night and Selection Sunday is in our rear view mirror.  Before we can look forward towards the NCAA Tournament and Duke's defense of its title we will quickly take a look tonight at the ACC Tournament. 

Duke dominated its way through the ACC Tournament this past weekend.  They controlled the game against Maryland, they then controlled the game against Virginia Tech and finally Sunday afternoon they took control and never relinquished it against UNC.  Duke looked like a veteran, tournament tested, tournament ready and focused team.  You could see it in all the player's eyes on Sunday against UNC that the fire of a champion was burning again.  I had my doubts about the title defense coming into this weekend, but my doubts are now a distant memory again after the performance against UNC.

KYRIE UPDATE:

After Friday's surprise workout in his jersey prior to the Maryland game, Kyrie continued to work out prior to games all weekend and then dropped a quote bomb on Sunday after cutting down the nets.  Talking about the possibility of returning in the NCAA Tournament, "I can't really put a percentage on it," Irving said. "It all depends on how I feel, and if the medical staff feels good about it."  It isn't a statement saying "I'll see you Friday afternoon!" but it isn't like the statements that have come from Duke or Irving before.  In previous statements from Duke and Irving, they have always ended the statement by saying something to the extent of "...but its a slim chance" or "...although its unlikely."  This time Irving's statement is more of a statement of when he can comeback, rather than "if", also comments from Coach K have the same feeling. 

"We're far away from that decision," Krzyzewski said. "But he's doing well. He's worked out here every day and we're not trying to hide anything. We tried to show that first of all we do have a guy named Kyrie and secondly that he's progressing well."  One more thing to keep in mind, Kyrie talked about a special shoe that Nike has designed for him, that won't allow his toe to bend as far back as it did when it was injured by hyper extending.  I pose this question, would Nike make a special shoe for a player to not play?

Other notes from the weekend:

Virginia Tech-

Wow, what a game against FSU on Friday night.  Unbelievable game, and then after losing to Duke on Saturday the Hokies were thinking more of where they'd be seeded in the NCAA's rather than if they'd make it after the win against FSU.  Instead the same feeling they had when the shot by FSU went in on Friday and was thought to have counted, came back on Sunday as the last team was named and they hadn't been called.  I feel bad for the Seniors on Virginia Tech, I think this is the second year in a row they have been ripped off by the committee and for them they may feel more like its the 4th year they've been ripped.

UNC-

As I mentioned prior to the Tournament in the preview, Roy Williams does not care about the ACC Tournament.  It showed that it rubbed off on his team that in each of the 3 games they started slow and lacked passion.  In the end of 2 of them their superior talent was able to overcome their indifference, in the 3rd game against a team just as talented, they got embarrassed. 

To me, this is Roy Williams issue as a coach in his entire career.  His teams have always been uber talented, and have always had great regular seasons.  But outside of his two championship UNC teams that each year had superior talent to the field, his teams have underachieved in tournament play.  Why?  Because Roy doesn't get his guys to play with consistent effort as shown this weekend.  Also Roy has one style that works, and cannot adjust.  As shown this year and last, when Roy doesn't have a guard that can push the ball and get the offense going, instead of adjusting his teams style and mindset, he pushes on and his team underachieves. 

Great ACC Tournament and hopefully a preview of things to come from Duke.  Speaking of previews, tomorrow I'll be posting my NCAA Tournament Preview, then Thursday morning I will post my bracket with all my picks.  Also I'll be keeping a very close eye on any possible Kyrie Irving news and doing my best to post anything I read on the blog.  Have fun picking your brackets the rest of the week and come on back Thursday morning to get some tips from my bracket if you'd like.

Duke Moves On, with or without Nolan Smith

Not again...please not again.  With a little under 7 minutes left in the quarterfinal match up with Maryland, Nolan Smith drove across the lane and kicked it out to Kyle Singler for an open three.  Singler would miss that three, but the much more important part of this play was Nolan Smith jamming a toe on his left foot right into a foot of a Maryland player.  The limping and grabbing at the foot that Nolan was doing after the injury was all too familiar for Duke fans that have already had their fill of toe injuries to star guards for one year. 

After Nolan left the game though Duke shut down Maryland and stretched a 5 pt lead into double digits and won the game 87-71.  They then cruised to a victory that leaves Duke fans with just as many questions as answers following the game.  Not only are they now questioning if Nolan Smith will return this weekend but prior to the game tonight Kyrie Irving was wearing his game shorts and going through relatively intense warm up.

Kyrie seems to be stepping up his rehab by the day and with a little under a week until the start of the NCAA Tournament, it sure feels like he maybe will give it a go.  Tonight in his game shorts he looked good enough in his rehab work out that Maryland's coaches had to ask ESPN's crew "He isn't playing tonight right?"

Duke played well tonight.  Both Plumlees had good games, Ryan Kelly was hitting open shots, Kyle Singler was controlling the game and scoring with ease and Seth Curry stepped up with Smith being injured to finish off the Terps.  Duke maybe without its two best players the rest of the way this weekend though.  Nolan Smith it was reported needed help getting up the stairs to the locker room.  Then Coach K stated "He's (Kyrie Irving) not going to magically appear tomorrow or anything like that because he hasn't done anything with the team, but it's coming along great."  Its possible Nolan plays Saturday, Kyrie it seems will again be in street clothes.

Who are the Dukies playing?
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Wow wow wow.....want to talk about an amazing finish to the FSU/Virginia Tech game.  A huge shot by Virginia Tech with 4 seconds left to put them up 1.  After a time out FSU got Derwin Kitchen the ball, he ran the full length of the court and hit a fading jumper from the corner for the win.  In real time it looked too close to call whether Kitchen got the shot off...in super slow motion...well...it was too close to call.  In the end with the freeze frame it seemed that the ball was still on Kitchen's finger when the clock it 00.0. 

So...revenge opportunity for Duke Saturday against Virginia Tech, 2pm central...LETS PLAY!

ACC Tournament Preview

I’ll be honest and state that in the past, outside of getting the enjoyment of watching 3 Duke game’s in 3 days, I haven’t cared that much for Duke’s sake about the ACC Tournament.  Usually Duke is playing just fine, and really a loss in the tournament would just allow for some rest prior to a run in the tournament.  This year though, Duke limped to the end of the season losing two out of three.  Neither of the losses a horrible loss mind you, but the losses just amplified what we had already seen.  This team is still flawed and needs to eliminate said flaws prior to being able to win another championship.  Can Duke cure what ails them in the ACC tournament?

Let’s take a look at the “competitive” participants in order of their rankings to start the tournament, their best possible scenario and worst possible scenario as I see it:

1. North Carolina

Carolina is the hottest team in the ACC, the regular season chumps…er…champs, and so the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament.  Harrison Barnes has figured things out and is living up to the hype.  Larry Drew II was horrible and by leaving the team has allowed for the blossoming of Kendall Marshall.  Henson and Zeller are consistently good on the boards and scoring inside.  So what could be an issue for UNC?  Roy Williams doesn’t care about the ACC Tournament (ADD LINK TO STORY), with this disdain or just lack of interest towards this weekend from the coach I can see UNC laying a bit of an egg this weekend and looking forward to the NCAA Tournament they weren’t good enough to participate in last year.

Best Possible Result: Champion.

Worst Possible Result: A Semi’s loss to a desperate Clemson or BC.

2. Duke

Unlike UNC, Duke likes to win this thing.  This year they really want to win this thing.  A 1 seed in the NCAA’s could be a reward that comes with another ACC Tourney trophy.  Let’s all be honest, Duke has played like a 2 or maybe even a 3 seed as of late.  With the weak ACC though Duke can take advantage and win this tournament and all but lock their chances for a 1 seed up.  As we saw last year a 1 seed can give a team favorable matchups and an easy/easier road to the Elite 8.  Once there you are a couple bounces away from cutting down the nets again.  Singler is the key player to watch for Duke.  The senior knows he needs to step up and a one and done format, as shown last year, can bring out his best.

Best Possible Result: Champion (And Kyrie Irving returns and gets his game legs back prior to NCAA’s).

Worst Possible Result: Loss in Quarters to desperate rival Maryland.

3. Florida State

It is still unknown if Chris Singleton, the Seminoles best player, will be back after foot surgery a little over a month ago.  With him back the Noles are in the hunt for to win the title of the conference tourney, without him they are still dangerous but with no real threat of winning it.  Without Singleton, FSU has gone 3-2 with a 16 pt loss to Maryland and a 2 point loss to the “on fire” Tar Heels.  So we have two predictions for FSU, the w/ Singleton prediction and the w/out Singleton prediction.

W/ Singleton:

Best Possible Result: Champs.

Worst Possible Result: Lose in quarters to Virginia Tech.

W/O Singleton:

Best Possible Result: Lose to Duke in Semis.

Worst Possible Result: Lose to horrible Georgia Tech in quarters.

4. Clemson

Amazing how the talent drops off after the top 3 in the ACC.  Although Clemson is no world beater, they have played well enough this year to put themselves square on the bubble for the NCAA’s.  A win and good competition against UNC in the semifinals will more than likely lock them in.  With what was expected of Clemson this year, this has been a very good season.

Best Possible Result: Championship Game loss to Duke.

Worst Possible Result: Quarters loss to Boston College who is battling them for a bid to the NCAA’s.

5. Boston College

Low point?  Losing to Yale earlier this year.  High Point?  Right now.  They finished off the regular season with 3 straight wins and 1 being against fellow bubble resident Virginia Tech.  Boston College needs to carry this mini-streak into the tourney and get 2 wins to probably lock up a bid to the NCAA’s.

Best Possible Result: Beat UNC (lost by only 2 on 02/19) and lose in championship game to Duke

Worst Possible Result: Lose to bubbler Clemson in Quarters

6. Virginia Tech

This team can’t get out of its own way when it comes to getting into the tournament.  Beat Duke, finally get their resume built to a point where they can get into the NCAA’s finally and not sweat it out on Selection Sunday as long as they just take care of business the rest of the way.  Instead, lose at home on Senior Night to Boston College then follow that up with another loss at Clemson to finish off the year square on the bubble again.  BC and Clemson are also on the bubble, so Coach Greenberg has to realize that this ACC Tournament is their only chance to get picked for the NCAA’s over those two teams.  They must win some games this weekend or yet again the NIT will be giving them a call.

Best Possible Result: Loss in Semis to Duke or whomever…let’s be honest this team isn’t consistent enough to win 3 in a row.

Worst Possible Result: Loss to FSU in quarters.

7. Maryland

The final team we will give an explanation for because the Terps are probably the only team left that could make a serious run in the tournament.  Maryland has the talent to win this thing.  Maybe I give them too much respect because when I see Maryland they are playing Duke and when they play Duke they usually play their best basketball.  Maryland is on the outside looking in and may need to win this thing or come very close in order to get into the NCAA’s.  Sweaty Gary will get them all lathered up and I see the possible quarters matchup with rival Duke as a game that could be the best of the tournament.

Best Possible Result: Champs, I understand it’s a long shot but I don’t doubt Gary Williams, I make fun of him but I respect him.  Combine that respect with a very talented and desperate team they could make some serious noise this weekend.

Worst Possible Result: Lose 1^st round to another underachieving talented team in NC State.

Worst of the Rest:

8. Virginia

9. Miami

10. NC State

11. Georgia Tech

12. Wake Forest

Game start Thursday at 11 am central with Virginia and Miami and the tournament ends Sunday with the championship game at noon central.  Very exciting weekend to come with all the tournament madness across the country and then the unveiling of the NCAA bracket on Sunday night. 

Duke vs. UNC: The Rivalry. The Review. Vol. 2

Prediction-

As much as I want to say Duke will come out and dominate from the opening tip, I have to be honest in that I don’t see that happening Saturday.  I see UNC coming out early working the ball inside to Zeller and Henson and getting out to an 8 pt lead within the first 10 minutes.   Duke will hang around trailing in the 8-10 point range the rest of the 1st half.  Another second half comeback?  Seth Curry sets Dean Dome ablaze with another shooting 101 session?  Nope.  UNC will come out in the second half and continue to be the team that has played better than Duke since their last meeting.  UNC will stretch the lead to 15 and withstand a few Duke run’s and cruise to an ACC regular season title. 

Predicted Score:

UNC 82 – Duke 71

Actual Score:

UNC 81 - Duke 67 (Gotta say...not doing too bad on these)

It was worse than I thought but not by much.  Pretty much UNC in control the entire game much like I predicted.  So what the heck is wrong with Duke right now?  Why are they struggling and what will they do in a week and a half to correct whats going wrong and then make a run for their 5th National Championship?

Kyle Singler-

Preseason All American needs to start stepping up in big games, not disappearing.  He disappeared again Saturday, well actually you saw him a lot but all he was doing was missing shots.  Duke needs Singler back to his All American ways, he did it last year and we know he can do it again.

Ryan Kelly-

Speaking of shooting and missing.  Ryan Kelly was Mr. Consistent early on this year.  If he got an open shot, he made it.  That simple.  Now he is missing his open threes and really if Kelly isn't hitting his open shots his value on the court is minimal.  Kelly isn't a great defender (outside of taking a nice charge here and there) and isn't as good a rebounder as either Plumlee.  Kelly needs to get his outside shot back or find himself a comfy spot on the bench.

Plumlees-

Mason tried to get somethings going offensively last night, in the end though 0 pts on 0-4 shooting.  Miles had one of his best games of the year I think, 7 points and 11 rebounds in nearly 30 minutes filling in for the foul riddled Mason.  Mason and Miles need to be aggressive offensively for Duke to run its offense successfully.  If they are only out there to set screens Duke is then playing 4 on 5 offensively as the opposing defense has no reason to pay attention to the Plumlees and will just clog up the middle and driving lanes for the rest of the team.

Bench-

What bench?  Duke played 8 players last night and got 7 pts for their combined 44 minutes.  Miles was the only real player that got significant minutes and who did anything significant.  Andre Dawkins yet again was a non factor, 0 pts on 0-1 shooting in 12 minutes.  Tyler Thornton didn't attempt a shot in his....3 minutes.  Will the bench step up in the ACC Tournament and keep it going into the NCAA Tournament?  Tough to tell but I definitely believe they need to.

Lack of Kyrie-

Honestly it maybe this simple, this maybe the difference for Duke this year.  The main thing that Kyrie gives Duke that Duke has been struggling to get since the injury is easy shots.  Kyrie pushes the ball and gets lay-ups and on drives and kicks and dishes he gets the ball to his teammates in spots for them to get an easy shot.  Will Kyrie come back?  Just like it has been since the day after he got hurt...nobody knows.

ACC Tournament is up next, Duke will be the 2 seed and will need a good run in the conference tourney to figure somethings out prior to the "big one". 

ACC Tournament preview and predictions forthcoming...

Duke vs. UNC: The Rivalry. The Prediction. Vol. 2

Somehow we are already here.  I just flipped my calendar to March (yes I am 4 days late).  Time has flown by and even with snow storms and negative degree winter weather, non conference and all but 1 conference game have been completed for Duke this year.  If you are just tuning in expecting the preseason prediction of Duke running roughshod on the weak ACC and having the regular season crown already locked up, SURPRISE!  Instead a struggling UNC team that looked dead in the water early has kept up with Duke.  Now the rivalries second regular season matchup on Saturday in Chapel Hill will decide the regular season champion of the ACC.

A couple things we’ve learned since the first matchup-

-         Harrison Barnes has figured this college basketball thing out.  Barnes is averaging 17 point per game in the 6 games since his disappointing 9 point output against Duke in early February.  He also won the Tar Heels game against FSU on Wednesday with a 3 in the waning seconds.  Can Kyle Singler keep Barnes under control again Saturday?

-         Duke hasn’t played a quality complete game since the UNC win, in which they only played 1 good half.  Duke has been very inconsistent lately and hasn’t looked comfortable on offense.  Even though Duke has won 5 of the last 6 since the UNC game, they haven’t dominated the subpar opponents as they should.  Not sure if the perfect remedy for a struggling Duke team is heading in to a blood thirsty Dean Dome.

-         Charlie Sheen is crazy.  Crazy like a fox!  Nah, he is actually bat excrement crazy.

-         Andre Dawkins and Miles Plumlee have lost Coach K’s confidence.  Each averaging only 11 minutes a game since the last UNC matchup. 

-         Duke can lock up a #1 seed possibly with this win Saturday.  If they lose they will still have a chance with a strong performance in the ACC tourney but why not take care of it Saturday.  A #1 seed would really improve Duke’s outlook of repeating as National Champs.

-         If I want people to read this blog I should write about Kyrie Irving or Duke vs.UNC. Duke vs. UNC? Check. Kyrie Irving? 1 stone lets get 2 birds though…..

-         Depending on who you ask Kyrie Irving is:

o       Done for the year

o       Coming back Saturday

o       Coming back in the ACC tournament

o       Coming back for the NCAA tournament

o       A white watch hoarder (Anyone else noticed this?)

He tweeted today, “But also some good news… I’m now retiring my walking boot officially…Back to regular sneakers. lol… feels so good!!!”  You know what would “feel so good”?  Coming back for the NCAA tournament and dominating.  So if you could just go ahead and take care of that for me Kyrie, that’d be great mk?

Prediction-

As much as I want to say Duke will come out and dominate from the opening tip, I have to be honest in that I don’t see that happening Saturday.  I see UNC coming out early working the ball inside to Zeller and Henson and getting out to an 8 pt lead within the first 10 minutes.   Duke will hang around trailing in the 8-10 point range the rest of the 1st half.  Another second half comeback?  Seth Curry sets Dean Dome ablaze with another shooting 101 session?  Nope.  UNC will come out in the second half and continue to be the team that has played better than Duke since their last meeting.  UNC will stretch the lead to 15 and withstand a few Duke run’s and cruise to an ACC regular season title. 

Predicted Score:

UNC 82 – Duke 71