Duke vs UNC: The Rivalry. The Prediction. Vol. 1

The rivalry.  As Duke fans we all know about it, we all have memories of past battles both good and bad.  Stackhouse’s sick under the hoop dunk (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv2b6zXBJiE).  Capel’s buzzer beater to force OT (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAZvnJ_sngI).  Redick lighting up UNC for 35 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iPAmUCfB5A).  Hansbrough dominating Duke in his four years then Gerald Henderson dominating Hansbroughs nose with his unintentional elbow, though as a Duke fan I like to think it was intentional (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGHaLUgrzi4).  It is the rivalry that all college basketball fans can tune into and get excited about, and the first chapter of this years rivalry begins Wednesday, 8 pm, Cameron Indoor Stadium.  Let’s play!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnnXvvL-DYk&feature=related

Match-ups to watch:

Nolan Smith vs. Kendall Marshall – Edge: Duke

Kendall Marshall is coming off his career game, 9 pts and 16 assists, taking over for Larry Drew II who left UNC.  The Freshman looks like the future PG for Roy’s Boys, but the future will need to be now if he is to keep up with the POY candidate Smith.  Nolan is on fire and will have the edge on Marshall just as he has the edge on all guards outside of maybe some dude named “Jimmer”. 

Tyler Zeller/John Henson vs. Plumlees/Ryan Kelly- Edge: Draw

Both teams have big men with NBA hype, Zeller and Henson for UNC and Mason Plumlee for Duke.   You have to give Duke the slight edge on big men depth but then for overall offensive talent you have to give the edge to Tyler Zeller for UNC.  In the end I think it is a draw, but if Duke can get either or both of UNC’s big men in foul trouble the edge will swing big time to Duke.  Not because Duke will then pound inside to its big men, but because offensively Henson and Zeller mean a lot for UNC and without them on the court Duke can really focus on the perimeter players for UNC.

Kyle Singler vs. Harrison Barnes- Edge: Duke

Again we have a Duke Senior vs. a UNC Freshman, and again the experience will reign supreme.  Barnes may end up being a better pro either next year or later but right now Singler is by far the superior college player even with Barnes playing his best ball of the year right now.  It will be very interesting to see how Barnes reacts to the pressure of the rivalry and the Cameron Crazies.  Barnes had a ton of pressure on him early on this year and folded, he is now playing his best ball because UNC has faded from everyone’s focus and Barnes' hype has totally died due to his lackluster performance.  Barnes will be the main focus for the Cameron Crazies and he has to respond well, like Hansbrough used to, in order for UNC to have a chance.

UNC Role Players vs. Duke Role Players – Edge: Duke

Quite simply UNC can’t measure up to players like Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton and Ryan Kelly.  This very well could be where the game is won or lost, Dawkins and Curry need to be hitting shots to take pressure off Smith and Singler.  Thornton will have to D-up Marshall to keep him from being the distributor he was against FSU Sunday.  Dexter Strickland is a nice player and will be the one I will keep a close eye on Wednesday, he can score and can do it in bunches when he gets going.  Outside of Barnes, Zeller and Henson, its Strickland that can carry UNC’s offense at periods of time for UNC much like Dawkins and Curry can for Duke.  The edge has to be Duke’s though because instead of having 1 player that can go for 20+ any night like Strickland they have 2.

Coach K vs Roy Williams- Edge: Duke

Coach K is on his game right now and after last years blow out win (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=300650150) has to have a mental edge on Williams.  Overall these two are 7-7 against each other.  Roy seems to have this season turned around after last year’s disaster but UNC isn't that far removed from being smoked by a bad Georgia Tech team.  Another bad beating by Duke Wednesday could easily throw UNC’s season back in jeopardy.  UNC has a lot of very young players on the team that are already shaken from Drew leaving the team last Friday and a big loss to Duke isn’t what the doctor calls for when trying to heal young players wounds.

Prediction: Duke 88 – UNC 74

-          The game will be close most of the way even maybe with UNC in the lead at halftime.  Duke at times has struggled to get off to good starts and this may happen again in a game with so much pressure.  In the second half Duke usually has found its offensive and defensive groove and will do that again here.   Duke will get it going and shots will be falling and with little over 7-8 minutes left will cap off a big run on UNC with a steal leading to a dunk.  Roy will call a time out as the Crazies go....well....crazy, as they do.  Duke will cruise to the finish from there and move on to Miami Sunday.