Final Four Coaching Rankings and Final Four Predictions

So the college basketball season is down to the Final Four.  Four teams that have battled through two weekends of tournament ball to make it to Houston.  If there is one thing that you get when you get to the Final Four is four very good coaches.  A team does not make it to the Final Four without a good coach.  This year is no different even though a couple of the coaches rub me the wrong way.  Let’s rank the coaches left and then predict what who will be left standing after these four square off this weekend.

1. Brad Stevens – Butler

At the start of last year I wonder how many people out of 100 could answer the question: Who is Butler Men’s Basketball head coach?  I think the number would be quite low.  Now though it would be very high, I guess back to back trips to the Final Four will do that.  Watch Stevens this weekend; look at his demeanor at the very start of the game.  Then look at him when the game is tight, late in the game.  What you will see is the exact same, calm and cool demeanor.  In an interview with Gordon Hayward of the Utah Jazz on ESPN radio this morning, Gordon explained that the run he was a part of last year with Stevens was aided in many ways by Stevens’ calm demeanor.  It is that demeanor, great plays coming out of timeouts, great defensive strategy, great job instilling that defensive intensity and calm demeanor in his team that makes Stevens my top remaining coach.

2. Jim Calhoun – UConn

Now if I was picking a guy to coach my team in the next 10 years or even just next season, Calhoun would be at the bottom of my list.  But I am not, I am picking the coaches based on this weekend and who I think is the best this weekend.  Calhoun it could easily be argued should be at the top of this list.  What I’ve seen from Stevens though in the past two years makes that impossible for me to do.  Calhoun has won a championship and been to the Final Four 4 times.  Calhoun is much feistier than Stevens, but that also works great for his team.  You have to admire what Calhoun has been able to do with this young team this year.  They finished 9^th in the Big East, but found themselves as a team in the Big East tournament and ended up winning it.  That shot them up to a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they have continued their late season success.  Jim Calhoun deserves a lot of the credit for getting this team ready for tournament time and for knowing the best play he can call this year is “Get the ball to Kemba.”

3. Shaka Smart - VCU

I understand that Smart’s track record isn’t all that sparkling outside of the past two weekends.  VCU had a very underwhelming regular season and if you think this team is truly as good as it’s been in the tournament, then Smart has coached an underachieving team up to until the start of the tournament.  The only reason Smart isn’t in last place for THIS weekend is because he has found the magic touch in the past two weekends and that magic will continue the rest of this season.  Even though VCU may not end up being the last team standing, Smart is on fire and has been making all the right moves in the tourney.

4. John Calipari – Kentucky

What a surprise Calipari is coming in to the Final Four with the NCAA and NBA looking into possible violations around his program!  This guy is such a sleazy coach.  UMass and Memphis can tell you all about what happens soon after he has success at your school.  You get crushed by the NCAA while he runs off claiming total ambivalence to the situations he left behind while taking big money elsewhere.  Calipari is a great recruiter (cheating the whole way probably) but has never impressed me with his in game coaching.  This year is different though, I have been very impressed with how well prepared the Wildcats have been for UNC and Ohio State in their past two games.  I have to give him credit for that, even Jay Z was proud of his performance…oh…sorry sore subject.  Kentucky might be the best team left in the tournament but I can’t say the same about their coach.

Predictions that are also probably worse than my cat’s picks:

UConn over Kentucky

Butler over VCU

Butler over UConn

Just gut feeling that Stevens and the Bulldogs get it done this year.  Doesn’t matter what you did prior to playing Butler, you will not be able to do those same things against them.  Butler does the best of any team in the country that I’ve seen in making you play the game they want you to play.  They did it all the way through the tournament last year including the Duke championship game, and they’ve done the same thing all the way through this year’s tournament.  I see it continuing, with experience beating out VCU and suffocating defense of Nored slowing down Walker enough to seal the deal in the championship game.

Should be a great weekend and be sure to check out Sports Tears in Our Beers.

Freaky Final Four and Collaboration Announcement

Why the picture of the cat?  Well because...with Mrs. Duke we had our first annual family bracket challenge.  We said "Hey, how about having Garfield (our cat) have a bracket too?!?"  So I made picks as a cat would, picking the Wildcats for instance over the Bulldogs.  Huskies...mushed them right out of the tourney early.  His Final Four?  Pitt Panthers...pffff what a loser cat, knocked out by Bulldogs.  Louisville Cardinals cause he loves watching birds....you silly kibble brained kitty you're down two Final Four teams already.  Then he turned it around.  Arizona Wildcats, you should've seen him strutting around the house after they beat Duke.  Last but not least, Kentucky Wildcats, his pick to win it all.  Garfield has already locked up a win against both Mrs. Duke and I and in impressive fashion.  Kind of humbling.

It has been that kind of year this year in the NCAA Tournament.  Four teams that nobody expected at the beginning of the tournament have made it.  VCU has made it after everyone said they didn't even deserve to be in the tourney in the first place.  Butler is back in the Final Four after last years runner up finish.  Kentucky is back in the Final Four for the first time since 1998.  UConn has continued it's hot streak and is ready to continue to ride Kemba Walker's play to a title.

Not sure yet who I think will take it all next week, but I suppose I should follow Garfield's lead and go with Kentucky.  That'd be the smartest idea, but I can't give him the satisfaction.  So I will pick one of the other three later this week.

Announcement:

The collaboration project I mentioned at the end of my last post is almost complete.  I will be working with Sidefx182 on "Sports Tears in Our Beer's".  This will be a sports blog that approaches different issues and news, focused mainly on sports, the way that the two of us approach a discussion over a beer.  It should be great, two perspectives on the sport's news of the day. Something new we are looking to attempt as well is podcasting.  This will allow us to dive into topics without all the...type-y-ness.  Please check out Sidefx182's blog on Minnesota sports and the currently under construction Sports Tears in Our Beer's blog.

Kitty Likes to Scratch!

Usually I am upset when Duke loses, all four losses prior to this one this year I got frustrated, but last night was different.  It was unexpected in the way that Arizona played a perfect half of basketball.  It was unexpected that the veteran Duke team reacted to Arizona’s great play by curling up in to a ball instead of counter punching. 

The way that Arizona played in the second half could not have been stopped, Duke wasn’t going to beat Arizona when they were playing that way.  Because of that I was in a surprisingly good mood last night after the game.  I felt like “It’s just one of those days.”  If you are an average lip reader you could see Coach K say just that to his assistant coaches in the second half after a Nolan Smith missed free throw, “It’s just one of those days”.

In your daily life when you come up short on a goal, sometimes the reasons you came up short will stick with you and bug you.  I find that this only happens when you had something that you could’ve done or tried harder at to achieve said goal.  Yet, if there was nothing else you could do, or the goal was too big to achieve you can come to peace with the failure to accomplish the goal much easier.  This definitely, for me, translates to last night’s game.  What I saw from Arizona in the second half, to me, there wasn’t much Duke could’ve done to stop that freight train.

So Arizona moves on to the Elite 8 to face Kemba Walker and the UConn Huskies.  If they play like they did in the second half, they will not lose another game this year.  I doubt they play like that though, the stars aligned for one half of great basketball.  Derrick Williams will be a beast, and if he continues this type of play even without aligning stars they will be a tough out.

Congratulations to Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith for great college careers.  Both are rarities in this era of college basketball.  Two players who both at times in their career had chances to go pro early, and passed even after winning a championship.  Both players improved each and every year from their Freshman campaign’s.  It will be really weird to see Duke take the court next year without Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith suited up.  It will also be very tough to replace the leadership from these two guys, who up to this point in their career's were very quiet and followed other leaders on the team.  Good luck to both of them in their future pro career's.

In the coming weeks I will continue to give opinions on the NCAA Tournament and then following the Tournament I will begin the season review.  Player profiles from the year, incoming Freshman profiles, season review, early 2011-2012 preview and more.  Then following that, the Mr. Duke blog will go into off season mode.

Also working on a collaboration project that will soon be available for you all to view, news on that coming soon.

Sweet 16 Preview

Fan’s of teams that usually compete for the title (UNC, Duke, UConn, Michigan State, Ohio State, etc.) may find this weekend to be even more exciting than most people’s favorite, the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  The Sweet 16/Elite 8 weekend usually doesn’t give us the same upsets and certainly not the overwhelming quantity of basketball that the opening weekend provides.  What it does usually give you is more quality games and match ups in the 12 games that take place this weekend.   Also the reward of making it to the Final Four awaits those who survive this weekend, which nobody can argue is much more prestigious than just making the Sweet 16.  Let’s take a look at the Sweet 16 match ups, with my predictions in each game and take a little longer look at the Duke/Arizona match up.

San Diego State vs. UConn

Match up to Watch: Kemba Walker vs. DJ Gay

Control Walker and the Aztecs win it.  Don’t control Walker, still they Aztecs possibly win but their chances are much more slim.

Prediction: San Diego State

BYU vs. Florida

Match up to Watch: Jimmer vs. Florida Gators

Much like Kemba Walker of UConn, Jimmer is a one man team here and even more so than Kemba really.  Every Florida defender will have a role in stopping him tonight.

Prediction: Florida

Butler vs. Wisconsin

Match up to Watch: Ronald Nored vs. Jordan Taylor

Nored is one of the best defenders in the nation, if he can keep Taylor under control than Butler has another Elite 8 trip in its future.

Prediction: Butler

Ohio State vs. Kentucky

Match up to Watch: Jared Sullinger vs. Josh Harrelson

Sullinger is the key for OSU, with him working the Buckeyes do well, if he starts struggling I think OSU may lose its efficiency.  It will be a group task to slow down Sullinger, but with a lack of depth that Kentucky has foul trouble for Harrelson and Jones could really hurt the ‘Cats.

Prediction: Ohio State

Marquette vs. UNC

Match up to Watch: Jimmy Butler vs. Harrison Barnes

Both their teams leading scorers, whoever gets the edge in this match up could have their team come out victorious.  Barnes has much more offensive fire power around him though.

Prediction: UNC

VCU vs. Florida State

Match up to Watch: Jamie Skeen vs. Chris Singleton

Reason I put Singleton here is because after another week of rehab on his foot he maybe getting much closer to 100% and if he is, the advantage goes to FSU.  VCU has played well, but they haven’t seen this type of length, athleticism and defense.

Prediction: FSU

Kansas vs. Richmond

Match up to Watch: Morris Twins vs. Richmond Spiders

Kansas goes as the brothers go, luckily there are two, if one is off the other can pick up the slack.  If Richmond can slow them down the Jayhawks begin to run out of great offensive options.

Prediction: Richmond

And now the one we all want to see tonight…

Duke vs. Arizona

Match up to Watch: Derrick Williams vs. Kyle Singler

Still unknown who will be matched up with Williams but Singler is a good bet as he has the size to defend Williams inside and can keep up with the athletic Williams on the outside.

Prediction: Duke

Duke wins this one due to the guard play and the lack of other options for Arizona outside of Derrick Williams.  Duke has too many options to shut down with Arizona’s defense and Duke has enough players that they can throw at Williams to slow him down some.  Kyrie Irving has had a week of practice now to get re-acclimated to the team and Coach K has said he will receive “significant minutes” tonight.  I expect a close game, but Arizona needed their best game to beat Texas last weekend, and even with that they were a 5 second inbound call away from losing.  Duke pulls away (unless K goes into clock kill mode to early) in the end after a close, feeling each other out, first half.

Weekend Review

As expected it was yet again a very exciting opening couple rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  There were the usual upsets, the big boys pushing around the little guys, injured players coming back and contributing, buzzer beaters, and nail biters.  The overall talent pool in college basketball may not be as good as it has been in the past. With that, and even with the tinkering that the NCAA insists on doing, the NCAA Tournament still produces the best sports drama of the year.  After making a very impressive mold of my posterior in my couch from Thursday morning to Sunday night I have some things that jumped out at me in good and bad ways and of course the Duke story as they head to the Sweet 16 again.

Duke's Weekend in Charlotte:

Kyrie Irving came back against an over matched Hampton team on Friday afternoon.  Duke really just imposed its will from the opening tip and the game was over early.  The most intriguing part of the game was how would Kyrie Irving look after not playing since early December?  In the first half Kyrie looked a bit apprehensive on the foot and looked like a guy that hadn’t played in over 3 months.  In the second half though Kyrie found his groove and ended with a team high 14 points.  Michigan smoked a distracted Tennessee team earlier that day and that set up a throwback game to the early 90’s between Michigan and Duke.

I’ll admit going in I was very happy to see Michigan moving past Tennessee.  Due to Tennessee being a “giant killer” all year.  After the game though I was surprised at how impressive the young Wolverines played.  Duke controlled the game for all except the last 6-10 minutes.  Nolan Smith played up to his usual Player of the Year level, then came Michigan’s 1-3-1.  The zone shut down Smith’s penetration and the open threes that Duke did get at the end of possessions weren’t falling.  Slowly the double digit lead that Duke had built early in the half disintegrated.  Duke held on in the end and survived a buzzer beating possible game tying shot from Michigan after a Nolan Smith missed free throw. 

I think overall it was a successful weekend for Duke.  Getting Kyrie Irving back was the best surprise for Duke.  I thought and now think even more the key for Duke was to get past this weekend.  Now Kyrie can have a near full week of practice to get re-integrated into the offense and get his legs under him.  The Michigan game was closer than it should’ve been, and I put the blame for that on the guy who won his 900^th game Sunday.  Coach K didn’t have the team ready to handle the 1-3-1 defense, and although it may not be a go to defense by Michigan it has been played before.  Also Coach K went into “clock kill” mode too early with the small lead that Duke had and against a team that can shoot the 3 like Michigan .  For me K goes into “clock kill” mode too early very often and it is a pet peeve of mine, it does usually work but yesterday was an example of what can happen with this strategy.  Hopefully moving forward Coach K will wait for a bigger lead, or less time left in the game prior to calling off the dogs so that a repeat of this near disaster doesn’t happen again.

Most Impressive Team: Ohio State

Murdered both teams they played this weekend and looked unstoppable.  I have to counter that though with the fact that the first game was against a 16 seed, and in the second game George Mason lost a leader of their team to illness prior to the game.  George Mason had no chance even with their ill player, but I think the impressive blow out may not have been quite as impressive.  Still, the Buckeyes showed why they are the #1 overall seed and favorites to cut down the nets in the end.

Most Impressive Player:  Matt Howard, Butler

As usual Howard didn’t put up the best numbers, but also as usual the plays that Howard made won games for Butler.  A buzzer beater to beat Old Dominion, a smart “Vlade Divac” flop/exaggeration on the rebound foul against Pitt and then sinking the game winning free throw.  A serious case could be made for Arizona’s Derrick Williams, and I wouldn’t argue but I choose Howard for this weekend because his heroics beat a #1 seed.

Biggest Disappointment: Big East

I have told friends for a while that the Big East is the deepest conference in the country, but as far as elite teams it isn’t the best conference.  Again it lived up to my opinion this weekend, whether it was Louisville falling to Morehead State or Notre Dame getting embarrassed by Florida State (should’ve left that pick on my bracket…gotta go with your gut).  Then Pitt losing against Butler, then Butler making a bone headed play to give the game back to Pitt, only for Pitt to make a more boneheaded play to give it right back to Butler.  Up to this point it has been another disappointing tournament for the Big East.

What I am Rooting For (other than Duke):

Who will come out of the Southwest and Southeast regions and represent them in the Final Four?  Kansas and Florida would be the favorites, but as we re-learn every single March the favorites aren’t the best pick usually.  My rooting interests will be Florida State beating Kansas with its superior length and athleticism in the Southwest final.  In order for that to happen Florida State will need to just continue executing offensively like it did against Notre Dame and not fall behind in its next two games.  FSU is great when playing with a lead, horrible coming from behind.  My other rooting interest on the right side of the bracket will be Butler.  I was rooting for them hard when they beat Pitt Saturday night and why not just carry that on and hope for repeat of last year’s National Title game?

I’ll have a Sweet 16/Elite 8 preview later this week.